On August 18, 2026, US federal debt exceeded $40 trillion for the first time, and on the same day, the 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.31%: the highest since 2007. These are not two separate news items, but the same event viewed from two sides. The Treasury pays an average of 3.447% on debt that the market currently prices up to 5.27%, and one-third of negotiable securities must be refinanced within twelve months.









