Markets

Equities, bonds, currencies and commodities.

Economic news

Dollar at June lows, yen back at 159: why the rethink on the Fed isn't enough

On Monday, August 17, 2026, the dollar fell to its lowest level since early June against major currencies, after three weaker-than-expected US data points pushed back the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Against the yen, however, it remains at 159: of the 7.23 yen recovered with the late July joint intervention, 2.55 have already been given back. Because the yield differential matters more than an intervention on the exchange rate.

17 August 2026 · 15 min

Federal Reserve building in Washington DC with dollar symbol in foreground

Analysis

Anthropic towards IPO: two trillion are worth 42 times today's revenues and 10 times those of 2028

Anthropic filed its confidential prospectus with the SEC on 1° giugno 2026, and investor models are working on a 2.000 billion valuation. The internal forecast of 190-200 billion in revenues by 2028, revealed by Reuters, makes that price seem like a multiple of 10 times. On today's 47 billion annualized, however, it's 42,6 times: exactly what SpaceX and Cloudflare pay. The first operating profit is 559 million; sixty times that much would be needed.

15 August 2026 · 14 min

Markets

Goldman Sachs pays 2.25 billion for NEOS: 7.5% of assets, and 78% is in only two funds

On Wednesday, August 12, 2026, Goldman Sachs announced the acquisition of NEOS Investments for up to 2.25 billion dollars: 30 billion in assets across nineteen option-selling ETFs. The price represents 7.5% of assets under management and about ten times gross fees, with 78% of the value residing in just two funds. We measured what those funds truly yield compared to the indices they track: 29 points less in four years.

13 August 2026 · 15 min

Analysis

SpaceX beat the estimates and still fell 13.61%: the quarter that turned capex into a liability

On August 4, 2026, SpaceX published its first quarter as a listed company, beating estimates on revenue and loss per share. The next day, the stock lost 13.61%, with volumes triple the average. This is not an isolated case: starting this earnings season, the market discounts spending on artificial intelligence instead of rewarding it, and for a newcomer with an expiring lock-up, the effect is multiplied.

6 August 2026 · 14 min

A SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket prepares for launch, with the dawn sky in the background.

Economic news

Mega IPOs put to the test: SpaceX, the lock-up, and Meta's lesson

SpaceX publishes its first results as a listed company on August 4, 2026, seven weeks after the largest IPO in history: $85.7 billion raised and a stock that has already lost 45.8% from its June 16 high. On August 6, 911.5 million employee shares are unlocked. With Anthropic and OpenAI in line for listing, eleven major past IPOs — led by Meta and Rivian — tell us what to really expect from the first year on the stock market.

4 August 2026 · 13 min

A SpaceX Starship rocket taking off from the launch pad

Analysis

Ferrari, the quarter worth more than cars sold: fewer deliveries, higher margins and guidance raised for the second time

Ferrari closed the second quarter of 2026 with revenues at 1,938 million (+8.4%) and deliveries down by 3.7%: a twelve-point gap that tells the whole business model story. 2026 guidance raised for the second time, industrial cash at 276 million, orders covered for all of 2027. Fundamental and technical analysis of the stock, which closed in Milan at 346.65 euros, the highest level since November 2025.

3 August 2026 · 16 min

A red Ferrari on the track, shot from above as it drives along the straight in the pit lane

Economic news

Oil crashes after Trump stops Iran attack: barrel down up to 9%, stock markets rise

Following Donald Trump's announcement that he had canceled the attack on Iran and reopened negotiations, on Monday, August 3, 2026, crude oil fell between 6% and 9% depending on the instrument. European stock markets rose and Wall Street opened well: airlines soared, oil companies fell. In Italy, however, gasoline and diesel at self-service stations remain above two euros per liter.

3 August 2026 · 12 min

An orange oil tanker moored at the pier of a coastal oil terminal, with refinery facilities and green hills in the background

Markets

SK hynix, best quarter ever sends stock down 9.6%

On July 29, 2026, SK hynix reported the best quarter in its history: revenues at 79.319 billion won (+257% year-on-year) and operating profit at 60.543 billion (+557%), with a 76% margin. The stock lost 9.61% in Seoul. The reason is not demand, which remains strong, but the missed consensus of 5.5%, the absence of a shareholder returns plan, and fears that AI infrastructure spending will slow down.

29 July 2026 · 7 min

Modern skyscrapers in downtown Seoul, South Korea, under a clear sky

Markets

Stock markets in the red and oil towards $100: the Red Sea becomes the new front in the US-Iran war

The US-Iran escalation spreads to the Red Sea and pushes Brent above $100 at moments of peak tension. European stock markets fall, with Milan the worst on the continent; the ECB holds rates, the spread stays stable.

23 July 2026 · 6 min

Map of the strategic maritime straits for world oil flows: Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez, the Turkish straits and Malacca

Markets

How to read an earnings report (and why a stock can collapse even with record profits), the IBM case

On July 14, 2026, IBM announced revenue growth of 1% and adjusted earnings per share growth of 5%: the stock closed at −25.21%, its worst session ever, with 67 billion dollars of market capitalization wiped out. Eight days later, when the full accounts arrived with a cut to the annual target, the stock gained 0.43%. Here's how to read an earnings report, item by item, and why the deviation from expectations matters more than the number itself.

15 July 2026 · 11 min

Markets

BTP-Bund spread: what it is, why it matters and how to read it

An evergreen guide to the BTP-Bund spread. In February 2026 the monthly average fell to 64 basis points, the lowest since August 2008; on 29 July 2026 the differential closed at 83 basis points, up from the 80 of the day before, with the BTP at 3.98% and the Bund at 3.14%. In the meantime Italian debt has risen to 3,095.9 billion and the Banca d'Italia has cut its holdings by almost one hundred billion. How this is explained, and what it really means for the public accounts and for savings.

9 July 2026 · 15 min

Markets

Oil and the dollar: why two prices move the entire market

An evergreen guide to the two prices that act as the thermostat of the world economy, checked against 2026 data: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Brent between 71 and more than 138 dollars, energy at +8.5% in euro area inflation in June, the first ECB rate rise in three years and the dollar present in 89.2% of foreign exchange trades. With the mechanisms, the numerical examples and the indicators to follow.

8 July 2026 · 11 min

Oil storage tanks and energy infrastructure

Markets

What moves stock markets: a guide to (really) understanding equity markets

Why does an index gain 74% in a year and lose 6% in a day? Behind every session four precise forces are at work — earnings, interest rates, expectations and the macro context — plus a fifth one European investors forget: the exchange rate. An evergreen guide that explains the mechanisms with figures verified at the end of July 2026: ECB and Fed rates, ten-year yields, valuation multiples, the VIX and thirty years of data on the cost of staying out of the market.

6 July 2026 · 12 min